September Market Updates:

Natural Gas:

-The NYMEX prompt month (October) natural gas futures broke through the $3 mark in September for the first time since May of 2015.  The market movement was caused by below-average storage injections, warmer than average fall temperatures.

-Future prices for the winter (Nov 16- Mar 17) have gained 25 cents month-over-month ($3.32/MMBtu) as storage inventories are on pace to close out October at 3.9 Tcf.

-Despite expectations for strong expand growth in coming years, longer-term natural gas prices have moved lower since the beginning of September with NYMEX calendar strips for 2019-2020, losing 4-10 cents month-over-month.

Electricity:

Northeast:

-Mass Hub forward power prices are trading within a 2-3% range, which is within a 2-3% of all-time contract lows.

-Mass Hub forward power prices for 2017-2020 have moved downward slightly month-over-month as power demand drops off during the fall shoulder season.

California:

-2017 & 2018 remain higher (15% and 9%) due to ongoing concerns around winter reliability.
Weather Forecast:

The latest seasonal forecast for the October – December period predicts normal or warmer-than-normal temperatures across all of the US, especially across the western region.  The first official winter outlook (Dec – Feb) anticipates an early colder winter in the Northeast, but the rest of the country will experience above-normal temperatures.